By DAVE HALL, The Windsor StarJune 16, 2009Comments (56)
Rising unemployment, a local manufacturing sector on life support and a collapse of housing starts across the region will all combine to create a 5.6 per cent decline in Windsor’s gross domestic product by the end of the year, according to a report released by the Conference Board of Canada.Photograph by: File photo, The Windsor StarWINDSOR, Ont. — Despite rising unemployment, a local manufacturing sector on life support and a collapse of housing starts across the region, the vice-president of the WindsorEssex Development Commission believes there’s light at the end of the tunnel.
“I’m cautiously optimistic because there’s been a significant increase in inquiries about investment in the region, and I believe we are becoming better positioned to take advantage of advanced manufacturing opportunities in such sectors as nuclear power, alternative energy and aerospace,” said Patrick Persichilli. “But the economic realities we’re living in are pretty clear and these are difficult times.
“I do see some growth opportunities, particularly when credit begins to loosen up, which should spur additional investment,” said Persichilli.
The 5.6 per cent decline in Windsor’s gross domestic product projected for 2009 is the largest among 14 similar-sized cities, according to a report released Tuesday by the Conference Board of Canada.
“It’s disappointing, but not altogether surprising,” said Persichilli. “I do think, however, that once the Big Three issues are dealt with, you’ll see some more investment because it’s hard to justify investment as a supplier if you’re not sure where the major players will be a year from now.”
The report also projects that Windsor’s GDP will begin to show slow growth beginning in 2011. Transportation, tourism and infrastructure initiatives, combined with a modest manufacturing rebound, are expected to boost GDP growth to about three per cent a year from 2011 to 2013.
An increase of that size would place Windsor in the middle of the 14 cities in its comparison group.
“An expected recovery in 2011 hinges on a stabilizing auto sector and a bad surprise here could derail our forecast,” says the report.
Layoffs and plant closures in the automotive sector have combined to slice manufacturing jobs from an average of 50,000 in 2000 to just 36,000 last year and a further drop to 30,000 is projected this year.
“This is critical since manufacturing accounted for 23 per cent of all Windsor jobs in 2008 compared with just 13 per cent Ontario-wide. Unfortunately, manufacturing is expected to shrink to 26,400 by 2013,” says the report.
Diversification by local manufacturers into solar, wind and nuclear power supply sectors is viewed as a potential life raft by authors of the report.
Persichilli said that infrastructure spending across the region, especially on the lands surrounding Windsor Airport, will help spur growth and attract investment once those lands are ready to accept additional investment.
“We can attract a great deal more investment in the logistics and maintenance, repair and overhaul sectors once that work is completed,” said Persichilli.
Construction, which has been hard hit by a slumping new housing market, is expected to benefit in the short run by almost $200 million in recently announced infrastructure spending by the three levels of government, as well as a new border crossing and the access roads leading to it.
Despite those signs of life, construction output in the Windsor area is expected to decline for the seventh straight year.
Tourism, meanwhile, has been hit by a rising Canadian dollar, the recession’s affect on Americans and new border identification initiatives.
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